← 20th Sept Mox Saga Store Champ
Water AlliesTier 2
at 20th Sept Mox Saga Store Champ
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 9.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Water Genbu | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 46 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 46 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Castling Boon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ranger Strides | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Waterlogged Ranger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Halocline Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lily, Marine Castellan | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inundating Clash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |